Mar. 21, 2001

Power Experts Dispel Some Popular Myths about California's Blackouts

By Dan McSwain

As California's power crisis continues to play out, certain myths have cropped up in public statements by prominent actors in the energy drama. Now that long-heralded blackouts are upon us, the North County Times has contacted power experts and reviewed months of research in order to correct a few common misconceptions.

Myth: A 10-year dearth of power plant construction has left California in a chronic power shortage.

The real story:

There are plenty of power plants ---- they just aren't being run by their owners. It's true that no major generators were built for years, and that will come to haunt us this summer, when heavy air-conditioning use drives up demand for power.

But this is early spring, when the need for electricity sinks to a low ebb in the state.

Industry officials say that power plants have historically been available 80 percent of the time. In an emergency, many power plants can be fixed in less than one day and generally run near 98 percent of capacity.

Beginning in November, up to a third of the state's generators went off-line. Discounting hydroelectric and nuclear plants, the rate of "outage" at privately owned generators has exceeded 50 percent for much of the winter.

Frank Wolak, a Stanford economist who specializes in the electricity industry, put it this way:

"Either these guys are really bad operators, or it is extremely profitable for them to have a power plant shut down."

Myth: Demand for electricity, driven in part by the booming Internet economy, has surpassed expectations and shocked the industry, leading to soaring prices and a crisis of supply.

The real story:

The average consumption of power is indeed at an all-time high, but the increase is comfortably within projections made by the California Energy Commission 10 years ago.

And population growth is far more important than Silicon Valley in accounting for the 2 percent to 4 percent growth in demand that has occurred each year in the last decade, according to a fresh study by a Berkeley think tank.

Utility executives are fond of pointing out that average power use doesn't cause blackouts, it's the peak consumption that kills a system.

Peak consumption last summer was actually less than in 1998, an unusually hot summer.

Myth: Surrounding states have cut us off, resulting in a sharp drop in power imports that caused blackouts on Monday and Tuesday.

The real story:

The state power manager says that imports were actually higher during the blackouts than in recent weeks. On Tuesday, officials imported 4,600 megawatts ---- enough for 4.6 million people ---- up from 3,000 megawatts or less last week. On Monday, when blackouts hit more people and lasted longer, imports totaled 5,200 megawatts.

California is utterly dependent on imports, handling up to 20 percent of summer peaks with electricity from other states. But in the winter, the state has in past years exported power to the north, where electric heaters are common.

Now the Pacific Northwest is looking at its worst drought since the 1920s. That has left precious little extra energy for the summer, because the region depends on hydropower.

The region is facing 50 percent rate hikes and its own blackouts this summer. Officials say efforts by Northwest power companies to help ease California's problems have been nothing less than heroic and may prove to be self-destructive.

Net imports into the state fell last summer, but that was partly because in-state power companies exported much of their electricity to capitalize on higher prices, or to bring it back into the state at a greater profit.

Myth: It's California's problem.

The real story:

Power shortages and soaring prices have already spread to other states in the West, with blackouts predicted for summer.

Federal regulators have ultimate authority over electricity markets, but deregulation is so far along that the outgoing chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission says that it's too late to turn back now.

Capitol Hill Republicans are said to be adamant that the federal government do nothing to roll back deregulation, particularly if it helps California politicians who are overwhelmingly Democratic.

Myth: It's the federal government's problem.

The real story:

Federal regulators have said repeatedly that they will not order generators to either run their plants or cap the prices that they charge.

And don't look for a crackdown on the generators who are shut down.

Experts say it's almost impossible to tell if a power plant is really broken, much like a doctor can be fooled into believing that a truant child is sick.

It's up to Gov. Gray Davis, the state Legislature and the Public Utilities Commission to keep the lights on, by cutting deals with power companies for electricity and by coaxing consumers to reduce their usage.

Copyright 2001 North County Times